Аналіз та дослідження  •  Асоціація  •  Наш погляд на

Newsletter #31 Reconstruction Ukraine - January 2026

The beginning of this year has been exceptionally challenging for Ukraine. Regular attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure have triggered one of the most severe energy crises since the full-scale invasion, leaving thousands of households without heating and electricity in the middle of winter. This context underlines, more than ever, the critical importance of sustained support for Ukraine’s energy system, economy, and private sector.

Against this backdrop, this issue opens with an overview of Ukraine’s macroeconomic performance in 2025, highlighting how the country is maintaining relative stability under wartime conditions. You will also find coverage of:

• the government’s new initiative for digital employment through the Obrii system;

• fresh energy support programs from the European Union and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

We then turn to key announcements made during the World Economic Forum in Davos, including the launch of two major investment and infrastructure funds:

• Amber Dragon Ukraine Infrastructure Fund I;

• Horizon Capital Catalyst Fund.

Finally, we look at recent developments in the private sector, such as

• the first investment of the Horizon Capital Catalyst Fund in a wind farm in Odesa region;

• the entry of Estonian fintech into the Ukrainian banking market.

Enjoy the read!

Ukraine Reconstruction: Key Figures

• Macro 2025

Despite the continued impact of the war, Ukraine’s macroeconomic environment in 2025 showed relative stability, supported by strong international financial assistance. However, growth remained constrained by security risks, infrastructure damage, and structural imbalances, particularly in trade and the labour market.

The key macroeconomic indicators for 2025:

• Real GDP growth reached approximately 2% in 2025, despite persistent security risks, significant infrastructure damage, loss of production capacity, electricity shortages, and continued labor market constraints.

• Inflation averaged 8.0% year-on-year, remaining below the forecasts of the National Bank of Ukraine (9.3%) and private sector expectations (8.8%).

• Foreign exchange reserves increased to USD 57.3 billion, covering nearly six months of imports and providing a strong buffer for macro-financial stability.

• The trade deficit widened, with imports reaching USD 84.8 billion, more than double the value of exports, primarily driven by energy imports and defense-related needs.

• Population movements continued in 2025, but at a more moderate pace compared to the initial years of the war.

• State budget revenues increased by 21% in nominal terms, supported by fiscal measures and nominal GDP growth, yet remained insufficient to cover elevated wartime expenditures.

• Ukraine received USD 52.4 billion in international financial assistance, covering approximately 95% of the budget deficit:
  • 72% was provided through the ERA (Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration) mechanism, classified as conditional debt;
  • An additional 22% (USD 11.5 billion) was delivered via the Ukraine Facility, highlighting the central role of the European Union in fiscal support.

Overall Assessment

Overall, Ukraine’s macroeconomic performance in 2025 reflects resilience under sustained pressure. Maintaining this stability will depend on continued external financing, the gradual restoration of domestic production capacity, and improvements in the security environment.

Source: Centre for Economic strategy

● REPLAY Webinar “French Companies in Ukraine: Anticipating, Covering, and Managing Human and Operational Risks”

On January 16, we launched the 2026 CCIFU webinar series with a key topic for all companies operating in or planning to expand into Ukraine: Duty of Care.

Speaker: Gaëlle Baldet-Ladan, Chief Executive Officer of Geodesk

Moderator: Grégoire Dattée, Member of the CCIFU Board of Directors and Managing Partner at Forvis Mazars

During this webinar, we addressed in a very practical way:

• duty of Care: how to structure a comprehensive employee protection system,

• ISO 31030: the international reference standard for managing risks related to business travel,

• corporate responsibility: why insurance alone is not sufficient to meet Duty of Care obligations,

• insurance in times of war: what mechanisms are necessary to operate and travel responsibly in Ukraine.

The webinar replay is available via the link.

Key developments for Ukraine’s Reconstruction

• Visit of Minister Nicolas Forissier to Kyiv – February 3-4

On February 3–4, Nicolas Forissier, Minister Delegate for Foreign Trade and the Attractiveness of France, paid a two-day visit to Kyiv, accompanied by a delegation of French companies interested in the Ukrainian market.

This visit forms part of France’s ongoing commitment to Ukraine’s economic resilience and reconstruction, with a particular focus on strengthening the presence of French businesses in key strategic sectors.

During his visit, the Minister co-chaired a session of the Franco-Ukrainian Joint Economic Commission with Ukrainian authorities — a format reactivated to accelerate cooperation in priority areas such as energy, infrastructure, transport, telecommunications and defense-related industries. The discussions highlighted the importance of long-term economic engagement and the role French companies can play in rebuilding and modernizing Ukraine.

Minister Forissier reiterated France’s full support for Ukraine, emphasizing that the presence of French companies on the ground is a concrete demonstration of solidarity and confidence in the country’s future.

The visit also fits within the broader framework of bilateral initiatives aimed at structuring French economic support, encouraging sustainable partnerships between French and Ukrainian companies, and preparing the foundations for long-term reconstruction and integration into European markets.

We had the pleasure of welcoming Minister Nicolas Forissier during our General Assembly on February 3, where he addressed the French business community in Ukraine and reaffirmed France’s commitment to standing alongside companies engaged in the country’s recovery.

• Ukraine launches pilot project for digital employment via Obrii

The Government of Ukraine has approved an experimental project introducing fully digital employment and labour relations, using the Unified Information and Analytical System “Obrii” in integration with the Diia Portal.

The initiative was launched jointly by the Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture, the Ministry of Digital Transformation, and the State Employment Service, and formally approved by the Cabinet of Ministers through a draft resolution.

Key features of the pilot

• The pilot project will run for 2 years from the date the resolution enters into force.

• Technical implementation is scheduled for Q3 2026.

The main goal of the initiative is to digitalise employment-related processes and labour relations, simplifying administrative procedures for both employers and employees through the Obrii digital system.

What the system will enable

Within the framework of the pilot project, employers and working-age individuals will be able to use the Diia Portal or the Diia mobile application (subject to technical availability) to:

• search for suitable job opportunities;

• recruit and select employees;

• formalise hiring in electronic form;

• formalise termination of employment electronically;

• maintain digital employee personnel records.

Participation in the pilot project will be voluntary.

Regulatory and European alignment

The system will rely on the ESCO classifier as its core data model for occupations, skills, qualifications, and vacancies. This ensures compatibility with European labour market information systems and supports Ukraine’s integration into the EURES network.

Source: Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of Ukraine

International Benchmark  

• EBRD supports Ukraine’s energy resilience with €95 million package for Ukrhydroenergo

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is providing a financing package to Ukraine’s state-owned hydropower company, Ukrhydroenergo (UHE), to secure critical equipment for its hydropower plants and reinforce the country’s energy resilience amid wartime challenges.

Financing package

The package includes: 

• €75 million of a senior loan from the EBRD 

• up to €20 million in investment grants from international donors.

Including UHE’s own contribution, the total project cost amounts to €120 million. 

Impact on energy security and green generation

The investment will allow UHE to replace damaged and worn-out components at selected facilities, improving operational efficiency and increasing renewable energy generation. 

Once completed, the project is expected to deliver approximately 223 GWh of green electricity annually, reduce reliance on electricity imports, and strengthen Ukraine’s ability to meet peak demand. It will also contribute to annual CO₂ savings of more than 96,000 tonnes.

Technical cooperation

The project will be supported by donor-funded technical cooperation assignments, including rapid capacity-building for procurement and a strategic new training programme for hydro power engineers and technical specialists. Additional programmes will focus on improving UHE’s ESG practices and developing a gender action plan, reinforcing the company’s commitment to sustainability and inclusion

By supporting this investment, the EBRD is helping Ukraine maintain a stable energy system, advance its green transition, and strengthen resilience in the face of unprecedented challenges.

Source: EBRD, UHE

• EU announces €153 million in emergency aid for Ukraine and Moldova

The European Commission has announced €153 million in emergency assistance for Ukraine and refugee-hosting Moldova, as millions of Ukrainians face freezing temperatures amid sustained Russian attacks on energy infrastructure.

• €145 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine, 

• €8 million for humanitarian programmes in Moldova, supporting the country’s efforts to host Ukrainian refugees who have fled the war.

In parallel with this financial support, the EU has strengthened its emergency energy assistance. To help restore electricity to hospitals, shelters, and other critical services, 447 power generators worth €3.7 million have already been delivered. An additional 500 generators are currently being deployed. 

All equipment is supplied from the EU’s rescEU strategic reserves to ensure the continuity of essential services during winter conditions.

Source: European Commission

• Council of the European Union agrees position on legal framework to provide €90 billion in financial support to Ukraine 

The Council of the European Union has agreed its position on the legal framework to implement the European Council’s decision to provide a €90 billion loan to Ukraine for 2026–2027. The loan aims to help Ukraine address urgent financing needs as Russia continues its war of aggression.

Allocation of funds

Under the proposed framework, the EU will make funding available to Ukraine in two ways:

• €30 billion will be provided as macroeconomic support to Ukraine, channelled via macro-financial assistance (MFA) or implemented through the Ukraine Facility, the EU’s dedicated instrument for providing Ukraine with stable and predictable financial support.

• €60 billion will be used to support Ukraine’s capacity to invest in defence industrial capacities and to procure military equipment. 

The financial and economic assistance available under the loans will be made accessible in line with Ukraine’s financing needs, determined by a financing strategy to be prepared by Ukraine itself.

Source:  Council of the European Union

• Amber Dragon Ukraine Infrastructure Fund I announces approximately €200 million in commitments to support Ukraine’s recovery

The Amber Dragon Ukraine Infrastructure Fund I (ADUIF), the first specialised infrastructure fund investing exclusively in Ukraine, is expected to reach its first close at approximately €200 million, representing more than 55% of its €350 million target size.

Supporting Ukraine’s resilience and recovery

The Fund will invest in critical infrastructure projects aimed at:

• stabilising emergency and long-term energy supply,

• strengthening digital infrastructure and services,

• easing transport and logistics bottlenecks.

The Fund will also support Ukraine’s recovery by modernising essential infrastructure that is central to reconstruction and job creation.

Strong backing from international partners

Pending a few final closing conditions, the Fund will receive commitments from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the European Investment Bank (EIB), the International Finance Corporation (IFC), Swedfund, Impact Fund Denmark, and fund sponsors Amber Infrastructure and Dragon Capital.

Part of IFC’s investment in the Fund will be covered by guarantees from the European Commission and the Government of France.

The strong level of commitments at first close underscores investor confidence in ADUIF’s strategy and the long-term potential of Ukraine’s infrastructure sector. 

Source: Dragon Capital

• Horizon Capital Catalyst Fund reaches initial closing to mobilise equity for Ukraine’s reconstruction

Horizon Capital, a leading private equity firm in Emerging Europe with $1.8 billion under management, has held the Initial Closing of its reconstruction-focused Horizon Capital Catalyst Fund (Catalyst Fund). The first closing took place on 20 January 2026 at Ukraine House Davos, alongside the World Economic Forum.

In a record six months since launching fundraising at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome in July 2025, the Catalyst Fund has secured over 50% of its €300 million target. 

Investment focus and strategic sectors

The Fund focuses on minority investments alongside strong lead partners and was created to address Ukraine’s critical shortage of equity capital in asset-heavy, strategic sectors, including energy, digital infrastructure, and construction.

Horizon Capital aims to mobilise up to €3 billion for Ukraine, generating a 10x multiplier effect by deploying first-mover, catalytic capital alongside global strategic investors and funds, as well as visionary Ukrainian partners. 

Strong institutional backing

Catalyst Fund is backed by esteemed institutions, including: 

• International Finance Corporation (IFC), 

• the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), 

• Société de Promotion et de Participation pour la Coopération Économique (Proparco), 

• Swedfund International AB (Swedfund), 

• Norwegian Investment Fund for Developing Countries (Norfund) 

• Dutch Entrepreneurial Development Bank (FMO). 

In anchoring the first closing of the Catalyst Fund to enable investing in asset-heavy sectors now, not when the war is over, these esteemed investors send a powerful signal of confidence in Ukraine’s long-term growth and economic prosperity. 

Source: Horizon Capital

Focus on the private sector

• Horizon Capital Catalyst Fund makes first investment in 124 MW wind project in Odesa Region

On 20 January, the American-Ukrainian investment company Horizon Capital and the German energy company Notus Energy signed an agreement to finance a joint project for the construction of a124 MW wind farm in the Odesa region.

Transaction structure

The transaction is structured as follows:

• The Catalyst Fund will acquire a 45% equity stake in the project and provide its corresponding share of equity financing for construction.

• Notus Energy will retain a controlling stake and act as the lead investor, financing the remaining equity required and assuming responsibility for the construction and subsequent operation of the facility.

The total project budget exceeds €220 million and includes a significant amount of debt financing from international IFIs and DFIs, including: EBRD,IFC, Swedfund, BIO, Green for Growth Fund (GGF).

The Odesa region project is the first of three wind farms planned by Notus Energy in Ukraine, with a combined capacity of approximately 300 MW. It also forms part of a broader renewable energy development pipeline exceeding 1.3 GW across projects at various stages of implementation in Ukraine.

Source: Horizon Capital, Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of Ukraine

• Iute Group Strives to Enter Ukraine with Acquisition of Banking License

Iute Group, a leading European digital-first banking group, has successfully entered the Ukrainian market by establishing a fully regulated bank. 

As part of this expansion, Iute Group has acquired a banking license and completed a selective transfer of low-risk assets and corresponding retail deposit liabilities from the former RWS Bank. The total transferred volume amounts to approximately EUR 4 million, forming the foundation of Iute Group’s new bank entity in Ukraine.

The newly established bank will operate under the brand Iute Bank and will be supervised by the National Bank of Ukraine, ensuring full compliance with local regulatory standards.

Commitment to digital-first banking

The entry into Ukraine supports Iute Group’s long-term objective to expand its digital-first banking model and to provide simpler, faster and fairer financial services through digital channels. 

Ukraine has developed into one of Europe’s most digital financial markets in recent years, with a large population and high adoption of digital financial services. Iute Group’s risk-controlled entry structure would allow participation in this long-term growth potential while maintaining clearly defined capital and loss limits.

Source:  Iute Group

CCI France Ukraine initiatives

• Call for applications for the 8th edition of the Businesswoman Award

CCIFU launches the 8th edition of the Businesswoman Award, a flagship social initiative that has been supporting and promotingwomen’s entrepreneurship in Ukraine since 2019.

In a context of war and ongoing instability, the Award is aimed at women who, despite immense challenges, continue to grow their businesses, create jobs, and actively contribute to the country’s economic resilience.

The Award winners will receive:

• grants ranging from UAH 100,000 to 200,000 to support business development,

• mentorship and expert support, 

• membership in the French-Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCIFU), providing access to an international business network and new partnership opportunities.

Application process

Applications are open until 22 March 2026.

To apply, entrepreneurs must complete the online form at www.womanccifu.com and submit:

• a presentation of the candidate and her project in English;

• a video presentation of the company and project (in English or with English subtitles);

• the official business registration document.

Apply now or share this opportunity with women entrepreneurs in your network who may be interested — we look forward to receiving your applications!

• CCIFU Business Support Services

Navigating the specific challenges of the Ukrainian market often requires reliable local data and administrative support. The CCIFU provides on-the-ground assistance to help businesses understand the regulatory landscape, identify partners, and manage daily operations.

1. Conduct diagnostics

• Define a market entry strategy for Ukraine, tailored to the local context and reconstruction-related needs.

• Carry out company verifications to confirm existence, activities, and reliability.

• Answer strategic and ad hoc questions related to regulations, financing, contracts, markets, or potential partners.

2. Facilitate establishment

• Advise and support company incorporation.

• Offer HR solutions: recruitment, employer of record/payrolling, hosting services.

• Provide strategic support: business intelligence, operational resources, personalized assistance.

3. Let’s Rebuild Ukraine

• An exclusive operational tool dedicated to understanding and developing Ukraine’s private construction and building sector.

• Directory of key industry players: selection and presentation of 270 Ukrainian companies.

• Subscription system including regular updates and a CCIFU hotline for personalized follow-up.

4. Market intelligence and investigation

• Collect and analyze sectoral data: key figures, structure, market size, main players.

• Identify and select potential partners based on defined criteria.

• Provide long-term, on-the-ground support to turn projects into reality.

5. Support your communication in Ukraine

• Organize tailor-made events: receptions, product launches, conferences, forums.

• Coordinate on-site logistics: venue selection, service providers, translation, interpreting, transport, and accommodation.

• Design and produce communication tools adapted to Ukrainian audiences: visual materials, bilingual content, press relations, and media partnerships.